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Emission scenario A1B

The scenario family A1 describes a future world with a fast economic growth, a world population which culminates mid-21st century and decreases from then on as well as rapid introduction of new and efficient technologies. Other important assumptions are convergence of regions, worldwide expandation of know-how, increasing cultural and social interactions and decreasing regional differences in per-capita income.

The A1 family is further divided into groups with different technological focus: intensive use of fossile fuels (A1FI), non-fossile energy sources (A1T) and a balanced use of all sources (A1B).

Emission scenario A2

The scenario family A2 describes a very heterogenous world with the main assumption of conservation of national self-reliance and local identities. In this scenario, the world population is steadily increasing. The economic development is mainly regionally oriented and technological change takes longer than in other scenario families.


Emission scenario B1

The scenario family B1 describes an integrated world with the same population development as in the A1 family but with a rapid change in economic structures towards a service and information oriented economy with lower material usage and introduction of low-emission, sustainable technologies. A main focus lies in global solutions on the way to economic, social and ecologic sustainability including higher social justice, but no climate initiatives.


Emission scenario B2

The scenario family B2 describes a world with a focus on local solutions for economic, social and environmental sustainability. The world population is increasing steadily but slower as in the A2 scenario family, the economic development is on an intermediate level, technological progress is slower but more diverse than in B1 and A1 scenario families.

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Norddeutsches Klimabüro
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
Zentrum für Material- und Küstenforschung GmbH
Institut für Küstenforschung

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